HOOD’s prediction markets to add $1.7B to revenue, exceed crypto by 2028: Bernstein

We are watching a significant financial shift unfold as analysts at Bernstein have raised their revenue estimates for Robinhood through 2026 and 2028, pointing to prediction markets as a major growth catalyst. According to their latest projections, these prediction products are expected to add $1.7 billion to the platform's revenue. Furthermore, the firm estimates that revenue generated from prediction markets will actually exceed Robinhood's crypto earnings by the year 2028.

This optimistic outlook builds on Robinhood's recent strategic expansions into diverse trading offerings beyond traditional equities and retail crypto. As the company broadens its product suite to capture shifting retail trader interests, traditional brokerages are increasingly looking at alternative financial instruments to drive user engagement and top-line growth. Prediction markets have emerged as a particularly dynamic sector, drawing considerable retail volume and capturing mainstream financial attention.

For the broader market, this projection highlights how traditional and fintech platforms are diversifying their revenue streams amid evolving regulatory landscapes and shifting user demand. When a major brokerage pivots successfully into event-based trading and prediction contracts, it signals a broader maturation of retail financial products. Crypto assets have long been a primary growth driver for platforms like Robinhood, so the prospect of another asset class overtaking digital currencies underscores a notable restructuring of platform earnings.

Industry observers and analysts have responded closely to Bernstein's updated models, even as the firm maintained its HOOD price target unchanged at $160. The debate now centers on how quickly retail adoption of prediction markets can scale and whether regulatory frameworks will remain supportive of these new financial instruments across different jurisdictions.

As we look ahead, the key question for market participants will be execution. Robinhood's ability to seamlessly integrate prediction markets at scale will test both their technological infrastructure and compliance capabilities. If Bernstein's forecasts prove accurate, the coming years will redefine what primary revenue sources look like for modern retail trading applications.